Monthly client report

Monthly review, highlights, and advice for
Millbrook Hardware

March 2026
Island Analytics
Don’t just trust your gut. Check it.
Island Analytics|West Tisbury, MA|617.877.4594|islandanalyticsmv@gmail.com|www.island-analytics.com
Millbrook Hardware · March 2026 · Headline
Page 2 of 5

A record March, pulled by the pro side of the aisle

March closed as Millbrook’s strongest revenue month on record across the two-store group, with $209,628 in net sales and a 54.0% blended gross margin. Stripping out the Amherst store (opened July 2025), Northampton alone grew 32.2% year over year, with gross margin dollars up 33.9%. The engine behind the jump is primarily from contractor-grade power tools, nailers, and bundled pro kits. Foot traffic at Northampton was essentially flat (+1.4% transactions), so the lift came from what customers bought, not how many came in.

Net revenue
$209,628
↑ 32.2% YoY (Northampton like-for-like)
Gross margin
$113,189
54.0% rate  |  +$22.9K vs PY (Northampton)
Transactions
2,154
+39% vs Mar 2025 total (incl. Amherst)
Average ticket
$97.32
+$16.18 vs Northampton Mar 2025 ($80.10)
Revenue trend, 15 months
Monthly net revenue, both stores. Amherst opens July 2025.
$200K $175K $150K $100K $50K Record: $209.6K Apr partial Jan 25 Apr 25 Jul 25 Oct 25 Jan 26 Mar 26
Monthly net revenueMarch 2026 · reporting month
Store scorecard, March 2026
Net revenue, margin, and unit economics by location.
MeasureNorthamptonAmherstTotal
Net revenue$163,918$45,710$209,628
Gross margin $$90,545$22,643$113,189
Margin rate55.2%49.5%54.0%
Transactions1,5705842,154
Average ticket$104.41$78.27$97.32
Items per ticket2.653.022.75
Revenue vs Mar 2025+32.2%n/a (new)+69.1%

What’s moving the needle

Average sale at Northampton is up $24 year over year while unit count is effectively unchanged. This means the same shoppers are walking out with pricier, higher-margin bundles and power tools, not simply buying more of the basic-grade nails and widgets they bought last March. That shift is more durable than a traffic bump; it suggests a deeper pro relationship rather than a one-off promotional lift. It also concentrates revenue in a narrower customer segment, so if two or three contractor crews slow down, the swing shows up fast. The Amherst picture sits at the other end of the spectrum: smaller sales, more items per basket, and a steadier flow of first-time buyers still learning where things are in the store. Treating the two stores as one aggregated number would obscure both stories; I recommend watching them as distinct lines in every future review.
Millbrook Hardware · March 2026 · What sold, who supplied it
Page 3 of 5

Pro is carrying the month; basics need a look

Pro Series took 35% of March revenue on its own. Hardware (led by nailers and outdoor gear) more than doubled on a group basis. The soft spots were the classic counter categories: hand tools, paint, plumbing, and fasteners all lost ground against March 2025 at the Northampton store, even as the overall number marched higher. That is a mix shift worth watching, not a red flag yet, but the commodity categories are an important floor for your revenue stream.

Department mix, March 2026 (both stores)
Net revenue share. Pro Series & Hardware = 65% of sales.
Pro Series$73,967 Hardware$62,162 Tools$19,228 Electrical$11,362 Paint$10,767 Safety & Cleaning$7,263 Plumbing$6,554 Lawn & Garden$5,906 Building Materials$5,458 Seasonal + Fasteners$6,959

Northampton like-for-like, department YoY

DepartmentMar 2026Mar 2025Chg %
Hardware$49,922$6,479+670%
Pro Series$69,215$47,889+44.5%
Power Tools (cat.)$34,166$26,102+30.9%
Contractor Bundles$17,775$12,544+41.7%
Hand Tools$6,158$8,489−27.5%
Electrical$6,844$12,635−45.8%
Paint$4,777$9,102−47.5%
Plumbing$4,010$6,518−38.5%
Fasteners$2,043$3,895−47.5%

Top five SKUs, March 2026

ItemRevenue
Finish Trim Nailer 16ga$19,565
Milwaukee M18 4-Tool Combo$9,223
Pro Plumbing Contractor Bundle$8,366
Steel Wheelbarrow 6 cu ft$6,808
Pro Electrical Contractor Bundle$6,550

Top suppliers, March 2026

SupplierRevenueMargin %
Milwaukee$46,33055.3%
DeWalt$21,99954.7%
Klein Tools$12,71855.1%
Ridgid$10,60455.3%
SKIL$8,54051.5%

What to do about it

The finish nailer alone drove 9% of total March revenue. I recommend that you confirm Ridgid stock depth and watch for a pull-forward effect that could soften April. Meanwhile, the double-digit declines in paint, plumbing, and fasteners at Northampton merit a shelf walk. If those SKUs lost endcap space to pro bundles, the fix is a planning exercise, not demand.

Millbrook Hardware · March 2026 · Customers, labor, and the two-store picture
Page 4 of 5

Amherst is filling up, but not yet paying for itself

Nine months in, the Amherst store is finding a customer base that looks genuinely different from Northampton’s: more transactions per ticket (3.0 vs 2.7 items), smaller average basket ($78 vs $104), and a heavier pull toward lower-price categories. That is textbook new-neighborhood-trade ramp and nothing to apologize for. The question is productivity per labor hour, and that is where the two stores diverge most sharply.

Labor productivity, March 2026

StoreShift hoursRev / labor hourAvg sales / shift hour
Northampton787$208$467 (mgr), $501–540 (floor)
Amherst782$58$113 (mgr), $105–165 (floor)
Group total1,569$134

Amherst is running roughly the same staffed hours as Northampton but generating 28% of the sales. Part of that is the ramp; part of it is schedule density. A two-hour look at the shift schedule against hourly traffic will tell you whether the gap is real demand or over-coverage.

Customer snapshot

MeasureMar 2026
Distinct identified customers2,099
Repeat customers in month54
Largest individual customer$1,395
Returns / refund count0

The repeat count (54 in month) is tiny relative to 2,099 identified buyers. This is potentially the single biggest untapped area: a simple pro-account or frequent-buyer tag at the register would let you see which of those 54 are contractors vs casual re-buyers, and build a list you can call.

Daily revenue, March 2026
Saturdays (Mar 7, 14, 21, 28) are the peak days every week.
1 7 Sat 14 Sat 21 Sat 28 Sat 31 $10,220 peak

One small operational observation

Every Saturday in March was a top-three day, and the last Saturday (Mar 28) was the single-biggest day of the month. If staffing those four Saturdays is where you are short, that is where added floor coverage pays back fastest.

Weather and the March bump

March 2026 ran warmer than the three-year March average in both towns. Seed sales (up 863% YoY at Northampton) and wheelbarrows/carts (+$5.9K vs zero last March) both line up with an early-spring pull-forward. Expect April to give some of that lift back, which the partial April trend line on page 2 already hints at.
Millbrook Hardware · March 2026 · Industry context and recommended actions
Page 5 of 5

What the rest of the industry is seeing, and what we’d do next

Context from the broader hardware channel

Total home-improvement category is projected to grow roughly 3.5% in 2026 per the Home Improvement Research Institute, coming off two flat-to-soft years. Independent retailers tracked by NHPA’s Independent Retailer Index have been flat in recent quarters, so Millbrook’s +32% at Northampton is materially ahead of the channel.

Pro/contractor demand is the segment driving the industry right now. Milwaukee Tool posted +11.2% YoY revenue growth in fiscal 2025 on $10.7B in sales, outrunning the professional tools market by four points. DeWalt is leaning hard on starter-kit pricing, often $100 below the comparable Milwaukee bundle. Your own Milwaukee share at 55% margin and DeWalt at 54.7% says your pro mix is profitable, not a loss leader.

Lawn & Garden is forecast to grow roughly 28% nationally into 2026 (Mintel), and Home Depot and Lowe’s both started aggressive Spring Black Friday/SpringFest promotions in late March and early April. If L&G is still 3% of your mix, that is upside to capture, not a reason to shrink the set.

The one-line industry read

Pro is hot, DIY commodity is flat, garden is the 2026 growth category. Your March confirms the first. Your April and May will tell us whether you are leaning into the other two.

Five moves for April and May

  1. Protect the pro momentum. Confirm Milwaukee and Ridgid stock depth through Memorial Day, and put a named owner on the Finish Trim Nailer 16ga reorder cycle so you don’t miss the next contractor run.
  2. Run the Amherst schedule against the traffic clock. 782 labor hours for $45.7K in sales is fixable. Trim one shift overlap per weekday and redeploy the hours into Saturdays, where every Saturday in March was a top-three day.
  3. Launch a simple pro-account tag at the register. Only 54 repeat customers were visible in March out of 2,099 identified buyers. A two-field flag (pro / trade / name-of-crew) gives you a callable list inside 60 days, no CRM purchase required.
  4. Do a shelf walk in paint, plumbing, and fasteners. All three are down 38–48% YoY at Northampton even as overall traffic held. Before assuming demand softness, confirm whether pro endcaps ate their real estate.
  5. Lean into Lawn & Garden through Mother’s Day. Grass Seed 25lb is already up 8× YoY with minimal feature space. Three focused endcaps (seed, wheelbarrows/carts, hand garden tools) should capture the pull-forward Home Depot and Lowe’s are advertising against, without discounting the whole department.

How we’ll track it